today toss and match prediction

IPL 2026 Match 61 PBKS vs RCB — Pitch Report, Toss Prediction & Win Probability Breakdown

Table of Contents

Today Toss and Match Prediction: PBKS vs RCB IPL 2026 Match 61 | Fairplay24
IPL 2026  ·  Match 61 of 74  ·  T20
PBKS
Punjab Kings
VS
RCB
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
Venue Mullanpur Stadium, Punjab Time 7:30 PM IST Format T20
Punjab Kings43%
Royal Challengers Bengaluru57%
Win probabilityRCB favourites
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Match overview

Context & stakes

IPL 2026 Match 61 is a high-voltage playoff-deciding clash as Punjab Kings host Royal Challengers Bengaluru at the New International Cricket Stadium in Mullanpur. RCB enter as clear favourites with 57% win probability against PBKS’s 43% — a match with massive playoff implications for both sides. PBKS are desperate to arrest their losing run while RCB look to consolidate their position in the top two. Understanding today toss and match prediction dynamics is crucial — this evening encounter will be heavily influenced by dew, and both captains are acutely aware of the venue’s characteristics. Access live pre-match odds at Fairplay24 before the coin is flipped.

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Today toss prediction

If PBKS win toss
65%
Likely to field first — unleash Arshdeep on a fresh deck
If RCB win toss
70%
Highly likely to field first — RCB back Virat Kohli to chase
Toss analysis

Today toss and match prediction analysis puts the overall probability of a fielding-first decision at 65–70% regardless of who wins the flip. Evening dew at Mullanpur sets in from the 16th–17th over, making the ball slippery and strongly favouring the chasing team. RCB’s batting lineup anchored by Virat Kohli thrives in chase situations, and PBKS’s pace-heavy attack is most effective bowling on a fresh surface in the first innings. Lock in pre-toss odds now with a Fairplay24 login.

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Pitch report & conditions

🏏
Early pitch behaviourMullanpur’s New International Cricket Stadium is a modern venue with a well-prepared surface that offers good carry for pace bowlers in the powerplay. Powerplay totals of 48–58 runs are realistic on a fresh deck. The pitch typically plays true with consistent bounce, making it a good batting surface once set.
💧
Dew factor — the defining variableEvening dew at Mullanpur arrives from the 16th–17th over and significantly impacts the death overs. The ball becomes slippery for seamers and spinners alike, strongly benefiting the chasing team. This is the single most important variable in today toss and match prediction — dew at this venue has consistently been a match-deciding factor.
🌡️
Weather & atmosphereWarm Punjab evening expected — temperatures around 28–32°C with moderate-to-high humidity. No rain interruption forecast. Humidity levels will accelerate dew formation, amplifying the advantage for the chasing team in the back half of the second innings.
🏟️
Venue chasing recordTeams chasing at Mullanpur win approximately 55–60% of T20 matches, reinforcing today toss and match prediction analysis that strongly favours fielding-first decisions. Average first-innings score at this venue sits around 168–178 with chasing sides benefiting from dew in the second innings. Sign up for a Fairplay24 ID to access venue-specific live market data.
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PBKS — team analysis

Key players
PlayerRoleImpact
Shikhar DhawanPBKS LH Batsman PBKS’s experienced opener and captain. Dhawan’s ability to build a solid powerplay foundation is critical whether PBKS bat or chase. His top-batsman market carries high value, particularly in batting-first scenarios where he can anchor the innings on a fresh pitch.
Arshdeep SinghPBKS LH Fast-Medium PBKS’s spearhead pacer and one of the best death-over bowlers in IPL 2026. Arshdeep’s ability to swing the ball in the powerplay and execute precise yorkers at the death makes him the standout bowling performance market pick in today toss and match prediction for this fixture.
PBKS toss strategy

KKR’s captain is acutely aware of Eden Gardens’ dew conditions and the home crowd advantage. KKR have historically preferred chasing at their fortress — today toss and match prediction gives KKR 70% probability of fielding first if they win the toss, deploying Varun Chakaravarthy and Narine to restrict GT before their chase-specialist batting lineup attacks the target. Download the Fairplay24 app for live toss alerts and instant market updates.

5

RCB — team analysis

Key players
PlayerRoleImpact
Shubman GillGT RH Batsman GT’s captain and the tournament’s leading run-scorer. Gill has accumulated over 474 runs at a strike rate exceeding 158, providing GT with an explosive foundation in every fixture. His top-batsman market is the most followed player bet in today toss and match prediction for this match.
Rashid KhanGT RA Leg Spin GT’s world-class leg-spinner and one of the most economical T20 bowlers in history. Rashid’s ability to take wickets in the middle overs and restrict run flow with his variations makes him the standout bowling performance pick when GT field first. His wicket market is always highly active on Fairplay24.
RCB toss strategy

Royal Challengers Bengaluru are in outstanding form in IPL 2026 — sitting in the top two with 14 points and the best NRR in the competition at +1.103. Powered by Virat Kohli’s magnificent batting and Josh Hazlewood’s pace in the powerplay, RCB are genuine title contenders. Today toss and match prediction gives RCB 70% probability of fielding first if they win the toss — trusting Hazlewood to exploit the fresh surface before Kohli’s batting lineup attacks in the dew-aided chase. Create your Fairplay24 ID to access live player markets the moment the toss is announced.

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Toss scenarios & betting impact

🔴 Scenario A — PBKS win toss, field first (Most likely PBKS path)
Arshdeep Singh leads PBKS’s pace attack on a fresh Mullanpur deck, restricting RCB’s first innings. PBKS then chase with Dhawan and their batting lineup under dew conditions. Arshdeep wicket market and Dhawan top-batsman are the key picks on Fairplay24.
🔴 Scenario B — RCB win toss, field first (Most likely overall)
Hazlewood and RCB’s pace attack bowl first, restricting PBKS. Kohli then anchors the chase under dew assistance. This is the most probable overall scenario and aligns perfectly with RCB’s strengths. RCB match-winner odds improve significantly. Kohli top-batsman and Hazlewood wicket are the standout bets.
⚡ Scenario C — PBKS win toss, bat first
Less likely but possible on a batting-friendly pitch. PBKS look to post 175–185 with Dhawan anchoring. RCB must then chase without dew assistance, which reduces their structural edge. Dhawan top-batsman and PBKS total runs markets gain value in this scenario.
🔮 Scenario D — RCB win toss, bat first (Least likely)
Only if conditions strongly favour batting first. RCB look to post 185+ with Kohli leading from the front. PBKS must then chase without dew. This is RCB’s least preferred option given their extraordinary chasing ability. “Over” total match runs and Kohli top-batsman are the standout markets if this occurs.
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Key numbers

43%
PBKS win probability
57%
RCB win probability
61
Match no. (of 74)
~172
Avg 1st innings
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Expert verdict

Today toss & match prediction
RCB favourites — field first, chase, win
Based on 57% win probability, RCB’s outstanding current form, the best NRR in the competition (+1.103), Virat Kohli’s batting brilliance and Hazlewood’s pace, Royal Challengers Bengaluru are the clear selection. Evening dew at Mullanpur and both captains’ strong preference for fielding first make this a near-certain fielding-first contest.
RCB
Match pick
Field first
Toss decision
168–182
Expected 1st innings
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Smart betting tips

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Live odds, toss markets & in-play betting — all on Fairplay24.

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  • 1
    Match winner — RCB (primary bet)At 57% implied probability, RCB offer strong value in the match-winner market — especially in fielding-first scenarios where Kohli’s chase brilliance and Hazlewood’s powerplay wickets come into their own. Place this bet on Fairplay24 for competitive pre-match odds.
  • 2
    Dew tips the balance — field-first betToday toss and match prediction shows 65–70% probability of fielding-first. Betting “both teams score 155+” accounts for dew-aided second innings batting. CSK chasing at the death under Dhoni with dew is their most dangerous state.
  • 3
    Virat Kohli top RCB batsmanIn any chasing scenario for RCB, Virat Kohli under lights on a dew-aided pitch is the standout top-batsman market pick. His record in successful IPL chases is exceptional — a consistent first-choice selection across all today toss and match prediction models on Fairplay24.
  • 4
    Live bet — powerplay assessmentWait for the first six overs at Mullanpur. A batting team scoring 50+ without two wickets signals “over” total runs. Two early wickets means “under” is the value position. Use Fairplay24 login to jump into live markets the moment the powerplay ends.
Disclaimer: This today toss and match prediction analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Cricket outcomes are inherently unpredictable. Betting involves financial risk — always bet responsibly and only with amounts you can afford to lose. Must be 18 years or older to participate in sports betting. Please follow responsible gambling guidelines in your jurisdiction.